Forex daily analysis 28th November 2013

The Euro took advantage of dollar selling against Sterling during the European session on Wednesday and broke above the 1.3600 level, briefly triggering fresh gains on stop-loss Euro buying. 

There was further speculation surrounding the ECB with reports that it could consider a fresh LTRO with conditions attached, but the Euro remained resilient into the New York open. 

A coalition deal between the CDU and SPD to form a coalition government provided some underlying Euro support and there was a firm reading for German consumer confidence.

The headline US durable goods data was marginally weaker than expected with a 2.0% monthly decline,

but other data points were better than expected. Jobless claims fell to 316,000 in the latest week from a

revised 326,000 previously, offering some reassurance over labor-market trends, while there was an

upward revision to the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. 

The Chicago PMI index also held comfortably above 60.0 for November at 63.0, maintaining the run of favorable surveys.

Forex daily analysis 22nd November 2013

The Euro was unsettled initially by much weaker than expected flash PMI data from France. Further currency damage was avoided by a stronger than expected reading for Germany with a four-month peak, but underlying concerns persisted with important vulnerability outside Germany.

ECB President Draghi also remained very cautious surrounding the Euro-zone outlook in a speech on Thursday. There were, however, also comments from Draghi that markets should not try to infer negative deposit rates and that there had been no further developments since the latest council meeting.