Forex daily analysis 4th December 2013

The Euro was initially able to hold steady in Europe on Tuesday, bolstered by the ability to hold important

support levels the previous day. The Euro also secured a boost from a better than expected Spanish

unemployment report and managed to push above the 1.3550 level during the European session. There

were still concerns surrounding the inflation profile with a weaker than expected reading for producer

prices keeping underlying downward pressure on inflation.

Forex daily analysis 28th November 2013

The Euro took advantage of dollar selling against Sterling during the European session on Wednesday and broke above the 1.3600 level, briefly triggering fresh gains on stop-loss Euro buying. 

There was further speculation surrounding the ECB with reports that it could consider a fresh LTRO with conditions attached, but the Euro remained resilient into the New York open. 

A coalition deal between the CDU and SPD to form a coalition government provided some underlying Euro support and there was a firm reading for German consumer confidence.

The headline US durable goods data was marginally weaker than expected with a 2.0% monthly decline,

but other data points were better than expected. Jobless claims fell to 316,000 in the latest week from a

revised 326,000 previously, offering some reassurance over labor-market trends, while there was an

upward revision to the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. 

The Chicago PMI index also held comfortably above 60.0 for November at 63.0, maintaining the run of favorable surveys.

Forex daily analysis 22nd November 2013

The Euro was unsettled initially by much weaker than expected flash PMI data from France. Further currency damage was avoided by a stronger than expected reading for Germany with a four-month peak, but underlying concerns persisted with important vulnerability outside Germany.

ECB President Draghi also remained very cautious surrounding the Euro-zone outlook in a speech on Thursday. There were, however, also comments from Draghi that markets should not try to infer negative deposit rates and that there had been no further developments since the latest council meeting.

Forex daily analysis 22nd October 2013

The Euro held steady during Monday with no move to attack resistance in the 1.37 area against the

dollar, but there was also solid buying support on any significant retreats. The Euro was still gaining some

degree of support from global safe-haven demands as the currency’s correlation with emerging currencies

dipped to 10-year lows on defensive inflows.

There will be further speculation that the ECB will eventually have to act to loosen policy given underlying

monetary developments which will tend to deter longer-term Euro support. The ECB will also be

increasingly uneasy surrounding the deflationary risks and there will be strong pressure to combat any

further Euro gains given the threat to economic growth.

Forex daily analysis 18th October 2013

The dollar was subjected to heavy selling pressure on Thursday, especially against European currencies.

The US currency continued to be undermined by the fact that congress only put together a short-term budget and debt deal which will ensure further political tensions over the next three months Capital account trends remained an important focus with additional speculation over inflows into Europe.

European stocks pushed to six-week highs and the latest survey of investor sentiment suggested that

funds were not over-weight on US equities for the first time since January.